⚑ Blotter Flag · Narrative Spine
The Blotter called Spence on scorecards, but its own watch condition beat that pick: if the fight was still competitive past round 8, the layoff — not the added weight — would decide it. That is exactly what happened, just for the fighter on the other side of the call.
The Layoff, Not the Weight
Tim Tszyu, 31, outworked a 36-year-old Errol Spence Jr. across 12 rounds in Tszyu’s own hometown, closing the book on Spence’s comeback and his career in the same night.
Spence's first competitive rounds in three years looked like the fighter who beat Kell Brook and Shawn Porter — he worked Tszyu's body early and answered Tszyu's opening right hand with a clean left of his own. Tszyu, fighting a southpaw for essentially the first time at this weight, leaned on right hooks and a jab to stay level through the first half. It was, for a few rounds, the competitive fight the Blotter's pre-fight program said it needed to be for Spence to win.
It didn't stay that way. Exactly where the program flagged the layoff as the deciding factor — the fight turning past round 8 — Spence's activity fell off, and Tszyu's body attack, not his power, is what did it. CompuBox had Tszyu outlanding Spence 190 to 157 in total punches for the fight, and 117 to 59 in power shots landed across the final seven rounds alone. Spence rallied in the 11th on some scorecards with cleaner body work and left hands, but three years of inactivity is exactly what the Blotter's own read said would show up if this went long, and it did.
Tszyu closed the show himself in round 12 rather than let the judges settle a formality — pressing forward from the opening bell, driving right hands to the head and body, and controlling the entire final round as Spence struggled to mount a response. All three cards came back for the Australian: 118-110, 117-111, 117-111. Spence announced his retirement in the post-fight interview: “I've got my faculties intact. My money is good, it's working for itself... I thank God that I'm gracious enough to leave this sport with my faculties intact and my family still by my side.”
Round 12
Tszyu didn't play it safe with a lead he already had. He pressed forward from the opening bell of the final round, drove hard right hands into Spence's body and head, and controlled all three closing minutes as Spence struggled to answer — the round that turned a competitive scorecard into a laugher, and the one Spence himself stopped trying to win.
Tim TszyuExceeded
Picked as the underdog on a moderate-confidence Spence call, Tszyu didn't just win — he won clearly, and he won by doing exactly what the Blotter's own program said was his only path: pace, a working jab, and forcing Spence's legs to answer questions they hadn't faced in three years.
Errol Spence Jr.Missed
Called to win on scorecards if his legs held through the layoff — they didn't. Spence was competitive into the middle rounds before the three-year absence showed exactly where the program flagged it would, and he retired in the ring afterward.
Paulo AokusoDelivered
Called for a stoppage in rounds 6-8; Aokuso needed the extra distance but delivered the finish anyway, catching Luis Antonio Tejeda with a single, fight-ending punch in round 10 to claim the vacant IBF Intercontinental light heavyweight strap.
Ahmad RedaExceeded
The Blotter's call went the other way — experience and the southpaw jab were expected to carry Paul Fleming. Instead the 23-year-old Reda handed the 2008 Olympian a clean, unanimous-decision beatdown, the clearest sign yet that his fast rise into 10-round main-card company wasn't premature.
Callum PetersDelivered
Called for a TKO in rounds 4-6 off amateur pedigree and finishing instinct; Peters needed one round longer but delivered on both counts — and, for the first time in his career, did it after real sustained resistance rather than an opening-round blowout. See Legacy below.
CompuBox via CBS Sports · Dashes Mark Segments With No Published Split — Not Zeros
| Segment | Tim Tszyu | Errol Spence Jr. |
|---|
| Total Punches Landed (12 Rds) | 190 | 157 |
| Power Punches Landed (Rds 6–12) | 117 | 59 |
| Jabs Landed | — | — |
Official scorecards: 118-110, 117-111, 117-111, all for Tszyu. Full-fight jab/power split by round was not published by CompuBox at filing time — only the aggregate total and the final-seven-round power-punch figure were.
Card-Wide Results · Blotter Call vs. Result
Called for a stoppage in rounds 6-8. Aokuso was up-and-down through the first nine rounds before landing a single, fight-ending punch to close it in round 10 — two rounds later than the call, but a finish all the same. He leaves Sydney with the vacant IBF Intercontinental light heavyweight strap and a real claim on the division's next tier.
Called for Fleming on experience and the southpaw jab, with an explicit flag that his recent form — a stoppage loss and a draw — trended the wrong way for a 38-year-old. That's exactly what showed up: Reda outboxed him clean across all three cards, one of them lopsided enough to end any debate. Fleming's stance-mismatch advantage never materialized; Reda's jump into 10-round main-card company looks earned in hindsight.
Callum Peters vs. Ivan Ricardo Actis · Afterpay Arena · Photo credit TK
Called for a TKO in rounds 4-6 off amateur pedigree and finishing instinct, with the explicit caveat that nothing on Peters's record showed how he'd handle adversity if Actis was still standing past round 3. Actis answered that question by lasting into round 7 — the first real distance Peters has covered as a pro. See Player Verdicts and Legacy for what that changes.
Blueprint Accuracy Report · Vol. I No. 28
Story First Blueprint v6.2 · Accuracy Audit · Call Standard: Winner + Method
4 calls made · 2 winners correct · 2 round-range misses (won)
No fabricated stats · All featured fighters accounted for
| Fight |
Blotter Call |
Result |
Verdict |
| Tszyu vs. Spence |
Spence — UD (Moderate Confidence) |
Tszyu UD (118-110, 117-111, 117-111) |
MISS |
| Aokuso vs. Tejeda |
Aokuso — TKO, Rds. 6-8 |
Aokuso KO, Rd. 10 |
HIT |
| Fleming vs. Reda |
Fleming — UD |
Reda UD |
MISS |
| Peters vs. Actis |
Peters — TKO, Rds. 4-6 |
Peters TKO, Rd. 7 |
HIT |
The card's two misses both matter more than a 50% rate alone suggests. The main event miss picked the wrong winner on the marquee call, though the reasoning behind it — that a competitive fight past round 8 would turn on Spence's layoff — is exactly what decided the fight, just against the pick rather than for it; the call's logic held even where its conclusion didn't. The Fleming-Reda miss was a cleaner error: Fleming's own recent form (a stoppage loss, a draw) was flagged in the program as a real risk to the pick, and that risk is what materialized. Both misses are logged for the permanent file rather than smoothed over.
Errol Spence Jr., post-fight · Afterpay Arena · Photo credit TK
Tim Tszyu · Errol Spence Jr.
One Career Reopens at 160, One Closes at 28-2
Tszyu called this the biggest win of his career and has a real argument for it — a clean, wide decision over a modern great, on home soil, in his first fight at middleweight. He's on record wanting a world-title shot at 160 next; this result is the credential that makes that conversation real rather than aspirational. For Spence, the book closes at 28-2, 22 KOs, with the Crawford stoppage and this decision loss as his final two entries. He said his goodbyes in the ring rather than leaving the door open, which the Blotter takes at face value until told otherwise.
Callum Peters
The Fighter Who Finally Went the Distance — and the Open Question That Comes With It
Peters's first six pro fights ended in the first round; his most recent two haven't, and Actis is the first opponent to genuinely make him work for it. The pre-fight program set a specific trigger for a formal Grind and Climb entry: not another early finish, but a stoppage win that survives real adversity. Actis lasting into round 7 — and Peters himself calling it a war — is the closest that trigger has come to being met. Whether it's actually met, or whether seven rounds of largely one-sided damage still reads as an early finish in spirit, is Kwesi's call, not a default the Blotter is making unilaterally here; logging it as an open item rather than deciding it. On the in-ring picture itself: the volume and finishing instinct are real, but the shape of his output — wide, looping shots that don't fully tuck his chin off the centerline — is the same note worth carrying into the next tale of the tape this program builds for him.
Tina Rahimi
The Tape Starts Here
Rahimi's professional debut was a routine four-round curtain-raiser by the numbers — a clean unanimous decision (40-36, 40-36, 39-37) over Sacha Ryan Dryden — but the pre-fight program was explicit that the numbers weren't the story. The first Australian Muslim woman to box at an Olympics now has a professional record to build a real Tale of the Tape against, starting with the next issue.
